MODELING THE EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTY ON TIMBER HARVEST: A SUGGESTED APPROACH AND EMPIRICAL EXAMPLE

A method is suggested for modeling uncertainty when there is a lack of information concerning the effect of forest management decisions on tree growth. Dynamic programming is used to investigate the optimality of alternative management strategies. The model is illustrated with an empirical example for a boreal forest region of western Canada. Three tentative conclusions follow: (a) silvicultural strategies to reduce uncertainty or to increase stand growth may not be worth pursuing, at least in northern forests; (b) the discounted cost of ignoring uncertainty may be substantial if taken over the entire forest; and (c) given uncertain forest growth, flexible harvest policies are preferred to a fixed harvest age.Agricultural Finance, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty,

Evaluation of African-bred maize germplasm lines for resistance to aflatoxin accumulation

Aflatoxins, produced by the fungus Aspergillus flavus, contaminate maize grain and threaten human food and feed safety. Plant resistance is considered the best strategy for reducing aflatoxin accumulation. Six maize germplasm lines, TZAR101–TZAR106, were released by the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture-Southern Regional Research Center (IITA-SRRC) maize breeding collaboration for use in African National Programs and U.S. maize breeding programs. The present investigation was conducted to evaluate aflatoxin reduction by these lines in a U.S. environment. As germplasm lines, resistance was demonstrated by the lines tested in 2010 and 2014 trials. In 2010, TZAR106 was among the lines with the lowest toxin accumulation, and in 2014, along with TZAR102, supported low aflatoxin. When evaluated as single cross hybrids in 2012, 2013 and 2014, several crosses involving IITA-SRRC lines accumulated low toxin. In 2012, TZAR103 × HBA1 was one of 4 lines with the lowest concentration of aflatoxin. In 2014, five IITA-SRRC hybrids were among the lowest with TZAR102 × Va35 and TZAR102 × LH132 being the two lowest. Results demonstrate significant aflatoxin reduction by IITA-SRRC lines in a U.S. aflatoxin-conducive environment (at Mississippi State University). Further testing in different locations and environments is needed to further evaluate the potential usefulness of these germplasm lines

Variations of radiocarbon in tree rings: southern hemisphere offset preliminary results

The Queen's University of Belfast, Northern Ireland and University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand radiocarbon laboratories have undertaken a series of high-precision measurements on decadal samples of dendrochronologically dated oak (Quercus patrea) and cedar (Libocedrus bidwillii) from Great Britain and New Zealand, respectively. The results show a real atmospheric offset of 3.4 ± 0.6% (27.2 ± 4.7 ¹⁴C yr) between the two locations for the interval AD 1725 to AD 1885, with the Southern Hemisphere being depleted in ¹⁴C. This result is less than the value currently used to correct Southern Hemisphere calibrations, possibly indicating a gradient in Δ¹⁴C within the Southern Hemisphere

Orientation of rainbow trout (Salmo gairdneri) in normal and null magnetic fields

In the absence of distinct visual or olfactory cues, adult and juvenile rainbow trout (Salmo gairdneri) showed preferred orientation in the presence of a normal magnetic field. In contrast, fish tested in a null magnetic field showed no directed orientation. These results were obtained in both the presence and absence of a slight (12-cm/s) circular water current. These findings indicate that nonanadromous salmonids, like anadromous forms, are capable of sensing magnetic cues during certain types of spatial activity

Effects of Noisy Oracle on Search Algorithm Complexity

Grover's algorithm provides a quadratic speed-up over classical algorithms for unstructured database or library searches. This paper examines the robustness of Grover's search algorithm to a random phase error in the oracle and analyzes the complexity of the search process as a function of the scaling of the oracle error with database or library size. Both the discrete- and continuous-time implementations of the search algorithm are investigated. It is shown that unless the oracle phase error scales as O(N^(-1/4)), neither the discrete- nor the continuous-time implementation of Grover's algorithm is scalably robust to this error in the absence of error correction.Comment: 16 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Supernova neutrino oscillations: A simple analytical approach

Analyses of observable supernova neutrino oscillation effects require the calculation of the electron (anti)neutrino survival probability P_ee along a given supernova matter density profile. We propose a simple analytical prescription for P_ee, based on a double-exponential form for the crossing probability and on the concept of maximum violation of adiabaticity. In the case of two-flavor transitions, the prescription is shown to reproduce accurately, in the whole neutrino oscillation parameter space, the results of exact numerical calculations for generic (realistic or power-law) profiles. The analytical approach is then generalized to cover three-flavor transitions with (direct or inverse) mass spectrum hierarchy, and to incorporate Earth matter effects. Compact analytical expressions, explicitly showing the symmetry properties of P_ee, are provided for practical calculations.Comment: 22 pages (RevTeX) + 5 figures (PostScript

Temperature correction to the Casimir force in cryogenic range and anomalous skin effect

Temperature correction to the Casimir force is considered for real metals at low temperatures. With the temperature decrease the mean free path for electrons becomes larger than the field penetration depth. In this condition description of metals with the impedance of anomalous skin effect is shown to be more appropriate than with the permittivity. The effect is crucial for the temperature correction. It is demonstrated that in the zero frequency limit the reflection coefficients should coincide with those of ideal metal if we demand the entropy to be zero at T=0. All the other prescriptions discussed in the literature for the $n=0$ term in the Lifshitz formula give negative entropy. It is shown that the temperature correction in the region of anomalous skin effect is not suppressed as it happens in the plasma model. This correction will be important in the future cryogenic measurements of the Casimir force.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, to be published in Phys. Rev.

Thermal correction to the Casimir force, radiative heat transfer, and an experiment

The low-temperature asymptotic expressions for the Casimir interaction between two real metals described by Leontovich surface impedance are obtained in the framework of thermal quantum field theory. It is shown that the Casimir entropy computed using the impedance of infrared optics vanishes in the limit of zero temperature. By contrast, the Casimir entropy computed using the impedance of the Drude model attains at zero temperature a positive value which depends on the parameters of a system, i.e., the Nernst heat theorem is violated. Thus, the impedance of infrared optics withstands the thermodynamic test, whereas the impedance of the Drude model does not. We also perform a phenomenological analysis of the thermal Casimir force and of the radiative heat transfer through a vacuum gap between real metal plates. The characterization of a metal by means of the Leontovich impedance of the Drude model is shown to be inconsistent with experiment at separations of a few hundred nanometers. A modification of the impedance of infrared optics is suggested taking into account relaxation processes. The power of radiative heat transfer predicted from this impedance is several times less than previous predictions due to different contributions from the transverse electric evanescent waves. The physical meaning of low frequencies in the Lifshitz formula is discussed. It is concluded that new measurements of radiative heat transfer are required to find out the adequate description of a metal in the theory of electromagnetic fluctuations.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures. svjour.cls is used, to appear in Eur. Phys. J.

Neutron Stars in a Varying Speed of Light Theory

We study neutron stars in a varying speed of light (VSL) theory of gravity in which the local speed of light depends upon the value of a scalar field $\phi$. We find that the masses and radii of the stars are strongly dependent on the strength of the coupling between $\phi$ and the matter field and that for certain choices of coupling parameters, the maximum neutron star mass can be arbitrarily small. We also discuss the phenomenon of cosmological evolution of VSL stars (analogous to the gravitational evolution in scalar-tensor theories) and we derive a relation showing how the fractional change in the energy of a star is related to the change in the cosmological value of the scalar field.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures. Added solutions with a more realistic equation of state. To be published in PR